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Douglas Smith

MORTGAGE MUSING

Marry the Home, Date the Rate…

 

Have you fully considered “The Cost of Waiting”? The cost of waiting is a concept designed to help homebuyers understand the financial benefits of buying a home now versus waiting.

 

Are you hesitant to buy a home today due to high interest rates? If so, you are not alone. Many homebuyers delay their decision to purchase while waiting in the event mortgage rates drop. Or, some sort of housing bubble that is going to burst giving way to lower housing prices. However, a delay to purchase may cost you more than you anticipated…

 

Have you truly broken down the Home Appreciation Gain over next 6-12 months, Cumulative Payment Difference, Amortization Lost and Potential Finance Costs vs. waiting? Don’t miss out on your dream home for the wrong reasons.

 

Some interesting stats and observations:

 

  • Since 1941 home appreciation has been up 75 in the last 81 years. Flat one year (1990) and down 5 years (2007 – 2011)

  • Between 2020 & 2021 prices appreciated an unprecedented 40%. Consequently, it follows, prices must come down.

  • The 2020 – 2021 price increase was not an unprecedented event. Between 1943 and 1947, home prices increased at a compound rate of 118%. Between 1974 and 1979, home prices increased at a compound rate of 93%. In 1947 if you waited for prices to come down, you would have waited 59 years…

  • NAR statistics tell us for every 1% drop-in mortgage rates, 5 million more homebuyers enter the market. If current inventory is tight and artificially generating upward pricing pressure now, what happens when you have significantly more potential homebuyers? Although not all will buy, that will not only make inventory even more sparce; but also drive home prices up higher.

  • Why did prices decline significantly between 2007 and 2011 and what is different in 2024?


  1. Inventory - Approximately 4.0M vs 1.1M

  2. Population Growth - 301 million vs. 335 million

  3. Lending Standards – Non-Documented Income and Assets vs. Fully Documented Income and Assets

  4. Household Formation – 2005 to 2009, available new home inventory nearly doubled household formation vs. 2017 to present, household formation significantly greater than new home inventory introduced to the marketplace.  

 

Don’t miss out on your dream home because your lender and realtor did not provide a “Cost of Waiting” analysis.

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